Business analysis and financial evaluation of a lodge in Chiloé

I took scattered data from a real seaside cabin business and turned it into decisions: I consolidated bookings from three sales channels and 94 reviews to measure seasonality, channel profitability and reputation, then evaluated the financial viability of a direct-channel digital strategy.

Client

Lodge & cabins · Ancud, Chiloé

Period

Jul 2021 – May 2026

My role

Data analysis and financial evaluation

Deliverable

11-section report + KPIs

01 The challenge

The business was growing strongly, but its information was scattered across three different platforms (Airbnb, Booking and direct bookings), plus disconnected reviews on Google and Tripadvisor. There was no unified view capable of answering financial questions: Which channel performs best? How dependent is the business on high season? Is digital marketing worth the investment? My job was to turn that disorder into one clean dataset and produce actionable conclusions.

02 Data and methodology

I consolidated 133 bookings at transaction level (Airbnb, Booking and direct) plus 94 reviews—all converted into comparable gross amounts. Before analyzing them, I had to clean the data: I corrected source errors such as amounts with an extra zero, incorrectly entered dates and inconsistent calculations—a step that often determines whether an analysis informs or misleads.

Using that foundation, I defined standard hospitality and financial indicators so the conclusions would be comparable and defensible:

• ADR (average daily rate) and average booking value per booking, to compare value by channel.
• Non-completion rate (cancellations / bookings), to measure the commercial risk of each platform.
• ROI for the digital project, to assess whether the marketing investment is justified.

03 The numbers that matter

A snapshot of the business:

Real business figures shared with the client’s authorization. Gross amounts in CLP; net revenue is after commission and before operating costs.

04 Profitability by channel

Airbnb is the volume engine, but volume is not the same as profitability. Once average booking value, commission and cancellations are considered, the priority order changes.

05 Seasonality: the major risk

The business’s main vulnerability is its dependence on only a few months: 73% of revenue is generated in summer while winter contributes only 4%. January (≈CLP $10.0M) and February (≈CLP $7.7M) account for nearly 60% of annual revenue: cash flow depends on three months.

Revenue is also concentrated in the product mix: only two cabins generate nearly 71% of the total. Simultaneous seasonal and product concentration creates a double reason to diversify demand.

06 Guest booking behavior

The booking-pattern analysis revealed clear profiles that can be used to refine pricing, availability and communication:

• Short stays: an average of 2.3 nights, with most stays lasting one to three nights.
• Last-minute bookings: 43% book three days or less in advance.
• A smaller group of planners: 13% book more than 60 days in advance, typically international guests.
• Weekend getaways: arrivals are concentrated on Thursdays and Fridays.
• Low repeat rate: very few guests return—an untapped loyalty opportunity.

07 A cautious forecast, not guesswork

I tested forecasting models on the monthly series. I rejected an exponential trend model because it produced inflated projections, and selected a seasonal model with damped growth, which was more stable for short-term decisions. The result points to approximately CLP $14.0M over the next 12 months (versus CLP $11.8M in the previous 12), once again heavily concentrated in January (≈CLP $6.5M) and February (≈CLP $3.5M).

08 Financial evaluation of the digital project

The underlying question was: Is it worth investing in a direct-channel digital strategy? (a proprietary website, a winter campaign and intermediary-free bookings). I evaluated it as an innovation project with an investment, expected benefits and sensitivity analysis.

The financial logic is strong: limited investment, permanent commission savings and a 4.67/5 reputation that supports direct acquisition. The estimated ROI is approximately 207% with payback in less than one season.

Relative scale: even in the conservative scenario, the investment is recovered and financial risk remains controlled.

09 Recommendations

I concluded the report with an actionable plan, not just a diagnosis:

• Develop the direct channel by using the strong reputation to attract commission-free bookings.
• Maintain Airbnb as the volume engine and optimize high-season pricing.
• Address seasonality with a winter digital campaign measured through concrete indicators.
• Start recording actual occupancy and operating costs, to separate revenue from profit and improve future decisions.

What this project demonstrates

Beyond this particular business, the case summarizes how I work with data: consolidate messy sources, clean and validate them, choose the right indicators and translate everything into decisions while clearly stating the limitations. The final deliverable was an 11-section report with monitoring KPIs and a measurable implementation plan.